Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Atletico Nacional or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓57% · @1.75
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.77
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Atletico Nacional take on Independiente Medellin on Monday 26 October, kicking off at 00:10 (WAT) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Atletico Nacional are 1st with 39 points from 18 games (top of the table), while Independiente Medellin sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Atletico Nacional's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Deportivo Pasto 3–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Independiente Medellin's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Once Caldas 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Atletico Nacional arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 October 2026, finished Atletico Nacional 3–2 Independiente Medellin. Across their last 2 meetings Atletico Nacional have won 2, Independiente Medellin 0, with 0 draws and 5.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.8 for Atletico Nacional and 0.9 for Independiente Medellin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico Nacional 57%, draw 24%, Independiente Medellin 18%.
Safer route: Atletico Nacional or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico Nacional or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Independiente Medellin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Nacional57%fair 1.74 · @1.75
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.40
Independiente Medellin18%fair 5.52 · @4.20
2.78Expected goals
1.84Atletico Nacional xG
0.94Independiente Medellin xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
3–06%
0–06%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.8 – 0.9 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Atletico Nacional or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independiente Medellin 18%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 1–0 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 26 October 2026 at 00:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
