Value bet: Fortaleza FC to win @ 3.75 – our chance 29% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓49% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 10.89
Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Nacional travel to Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin in the Primera A on Sunday 23 August (20:00 WAT) to face Fortaleza FC. Fortaleza FC are 20th with 12 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Atletico Nacional sit 1st on 39 points (top of the table). A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Fortaleza FC's last 5: WLDDD Most recently they beat Cucuta 2–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Nacional's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to America de Cali 0–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Nacional arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 February 2026, finished Atletico Nacional 4–1 Fortaleza FC.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Fortaleza FC and 1.5 for Atletico Nacional. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fortaleza FC 29%, draw 22%, Atletico Nacional 49%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Fortaleza FC to win at 3.75 – 29% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Fortaleza FC 1–1 Atletico Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fortaleza FC29%fair 3.41 · @3.75
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.30
Atletico Nacional49%fair 2.05 · @2.00
2.57Expected goals
1.08Fortaleza FC xG
1.49Atletico Nacional xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Fortaleza FC 1.1 – 1.5 Atletico Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional?
On our numbers Fortaleza FC have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Nacional 49%.
How many goals will there be in Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional?
Our predicted score is Fortaleza FC 1–1 Atletico Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional?
Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
