Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Independiente Medellin or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Independiente Medellin to win @ 1.94 – our chance 64% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✓64% · @1.94
Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.44
Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali preview and prediction
The match
Independiente Medellin host Deportivo Cali in the Primera A on Sunday 2 August, with kick-off at 00:10 (WAT) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Independiente Medellin are 6th with 29 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Deportivo Cali sit 3rd on 34 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Independiente Medellin's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Vasco DA Gama 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Deportivo Cali's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Jaguares 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportivo Cali arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Independiente Medellin and 0.7 for Deportivo Cali. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 49%.
Safer route: Independiente Medellin or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Independiente Medellin to win at 1.94 – 64% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Independiente Medellin or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Independiente Medellin 1–0 Deportivo Cali. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente Medellin64%fair 1.57 · @1.94
Draw20%fair 4.98 · @3.30
Deportivo Cali16%fair 6.12 · @4.00
2.40Expected goals
1.71Independiente Medellin xG
0.69Deportivo Cali xG
49%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.7 – 0.7 Deportivo Cali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
64%
1.57
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✗
39%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
16%
6.44
–
Form
Independiente Medellin – last 6
LWDWDL
29 Jul
@ Vasco DA Gama
0–1
L
25 Jul
vs Deportivo Pasto
3–2
W
22 Jul
vs Vasco DA Gama
2–2
D
2 Jun
vs Cucuta
2–1
W
30 May
@ Leones FC
1–1
D
27 May
@ Estudiantes L.P.
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Deportivo Cali – last 6
WWWWWL
25 Jul
vs Jaguares
2–0
W
24 May
@ Real Santander
2–1
W
21 May
vs Alianza Valledupar
1–0
W
12 May
vs Bucaramanga
2–0
W
26 Apr
vs America de Cali
1–0
W
17 Apr
@ Chico
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente Medellin and Deportivo Cali.
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali?
Our pick is Independiente Medellin or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Deportivo Cali 16%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 1–0 Deportivo Cali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali?
Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 00:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
