Value bet: Real Cartagena to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Cartagena to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 6.97
Leones FC vs Real Cartagena preview and prediction
The match
Leones FC host Real Cartagena in the Primera B on Monday 24 August, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui. Leones FC are 16th with 14 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Real Cartagena sit 3rd on 5 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Leones FC's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Real Cundinamarca 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Real Cartagena's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Bogota FC 2–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Leones FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 February 2026, finished Real Cartagena 2–3 Leones FC.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.8 for Leones FC and 1.5 for Real Cartagena. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leones FC 22%, draw 22%, Real Cartagena 56%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Real Cartagena to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Leones FC 0–1 Real Cartagena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones FC22%fair 4.48 · @3.70
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.10
Real Cartagena56%fair 1.78 · @1.95
2.37Expected goals
0.83Leones FC xG
1.54Real Cartagena xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–112%
0–211%
0–09%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Leones FC 0.8 – 1.5 Real Cartagena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leones FC vs Real Cartagena?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Leones FC vs Real Cartagena?
On our numbers Leones FC have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Real Cartagena 56%.
How many goals will there be in Leones FC vs Real Cartagena?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones FC vs Real Cartagena?
Our predicted score is Leones FC 0–1 Real Cartagena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Leones FC vs Real Cartagena?
Leones FC vs Real Cartagena (Primera B) kicks off on Monday 24 August 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
