Value bet: Popayan to win @ 3.30 – our chance 32% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnion Magdalena to win ✗44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.76
Popayan vs Union Magdalena preview and prediction
The match
The Primera B sees Popayan take on Union Magdalena on Wednesday 7 October, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT). Popayan are 2nd with 7 points from 4 games (in the top four), while Union Magdalena sit 3rd on 4 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Popayan's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Real Cartagena 3–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Union Magdalena's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Real Santander 3–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Popayan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Popayan and 1.4 for Union Magdalena. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Popayan 32%, draw 23%, Union Magdalena 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Popayan to win at 3.30 – 32% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.89, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Popayan 1–1 Union Magdalena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Popayan32%fair 3.08 · @3.30
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @2.90
Union Magdalena44%fair 2.26 · @2.05
2.48Expected goals
1.12Popayan xG
1.36Union Magdalena xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%
From our goals model: Popayan 1.1 – 1.4 Union Magdalena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union Magdalena to win✗
44%
2.26
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union Magdalena / FT Union Magdalena✗
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.76
–
Form
Popayan – last 6
WWWWDL
4 Oct
@ Real Cartagena
3–2
W
26 Sep
vs Patriotas
4–1
W
19 Sep
@ Leones FC
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Real Santander
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Envigado
2–2
D
1 Sep
@ Barranquilla
1–2
L
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Union Magdalena – last 6
WDDWLL
3 Oct
@ Real Santander
3–1
W
30 Sep
vs Real Cartagena
1–1
D
26 Sep
vs Santa Fe
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Patriotas
2–1
W
13 Sep
@ Real Cundinamarca
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Barranquilla
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Popayan and Union Magdalena.
What is the prediction for Popayan vs Union Magdalena?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Popayan vs Union Magdalena?
On our numbers Popayan have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Union Magdalena 44%.
How many goals will there be in Popayan vs Union Magdalena?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Popayan vs Union Magdalena?
Our predicted score is Popayan 1–1 Union Magdalena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Popayan vs Union Magdalena?
Popayan vs Union Magdalena (Primera B) kicks off on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
