UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
Sporting Cristal or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Sporting Cristal to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultSporting Cristal to win59% · @1.95
Double chanceSporting Cristal or draw81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.09
UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees UTC Cajamarca take on Sporting Cristal on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon. UTC Cajamarca are 18th with 6 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Sporting Cristal sit 2nd on 32 points (in the top four). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
UTC Cajamarca's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Sport Huancayo 2–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Sporting Cristal's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat ADT 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sporting Cristal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.1 for UTC Cajamarca and 2.1 for Sporting Cristal. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: UTC Cajamarca 19%, draw 23%, Sporting Cristal 59%.
Safer route: Sporting Cristal or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Sporting Cristal to win at 1.95 – 59% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Prediction
The Footrivo pick: Sporting Cristal or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: UTC Cajamarca 1–2 Sporting Cristal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UTC Cajamarca19%fair 5.37 · @3.50
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.40
Sporting Cristal59%fair 1.70 · @1.95
3.15Expected goals
1.09UTC Cajamarca xG
2.06Sporting Cristal xG
60%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–110%
0–29%
0–19%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: UTC Cajamarca 1.1 – 2.1 Sporting Cristal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting Cristal to win
59%
1.70
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Sporting Cristal or draw
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Sporting Cristal ahead at half-time
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting Cristal / FT Sporting Cristal
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.09
–
Form
UTC Cajamarca – last 6
LLLLDL
20 Sep
@ Sport Huancayo
2–3
L
11 Sep
vs Juan Pablo II College
1–2
L
4 Sep
@ Alianza Atletico
2–3
L
29 Aug
vs Universitario
2–4
L
25 Aug
@ Alianza Atletico
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Comerciantes Unidos
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Sporting Cristal – last 6
WWWWWL
1 Oct
vs ADT
5–0
W
27 Sep
@ ADT
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Atletico Grau
3–1
W
13 Sep
@ UCV Moquegua
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
5–0
W
30 Aug
@ Sport Boys
0–1
L
2.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UTC Cajamarca and Sporting Cristal.
What is the prediction for UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
Our pick is Sporting Cristal or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
On our numbers UTC Cajamarca have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sporting Cristal 59%.
How many goals will there be in UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
Our predicted score is UTC Cajamarca 1–2 Sporting Cristal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
