Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Alianza Lima to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.30Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlianza Lima to win ✗65% · @1.30
Double chanceAlianza Lima or draw ✗85% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.84
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso preview and prediction
The match
Alianza Lima host Deportivo Garcilaso in the Primera División on Sunday 30 August, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. Alianza Lima are 6th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Deportivo Garcilaso sit 4th on 29 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Alianza Lima's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with FBC Melgar 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Deportivo Garcilaso's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Cusco 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Deportivo Garcilaso 1–1 Alianza Lima.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Alianza Lima and 0.6 for Deportivo Garcilaso. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alianza Lima 65%, draw 20%, Deportivo Garcilaso 15%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.25.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 51% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alianza Lima to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Alianza Lima 1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza Lima65%fair 1.53 · @1.30
Draw20%fair 5.04 · @4.33
Deportivo Garcilaso15%fair 6.69 · @11.00
2.28Expected goals
1.67Alianza Lima xG
0.61Deportivo Garcilaso xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 1.7 – 0.6 Deportivo Garcilaso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our pick is Alianza Lima to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Deportivo Garcilaso 15%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our predicted score is Alianza Lima 1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
