Value bet: Alianza Lima to win @ 3.70 – our chance 34% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFBC Melgar to win ✗43% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.00
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima preview and prediction
The match
Alianza Lima travel to Estadio de la UNSA in the Primera División on Sunday 23 August (21:30 WAT) to face FBC Melgar. FBC Melgar are 5th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Alianza Lima sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
FBC Melgar's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alianza Lima's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat UTC Cajamarca 1–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 March 2026, finished Alianza Lima 3–1 FBC Melgar.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for FBC Melgar and 1.2 for Alianza Lima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FBC Melgar 43%, draw 22%, Alianza Lima 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Alianza Lima to win at 3.70 – 34% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.77, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FBC Melgar 1–1 Alianza Lima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FBC Melgar43%fair 2.30 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.10
Alianza Lima34%fair 2.92 · @3.70
2.66Expected goals
1.43FBC Melgar xG
1.23Alianza Lima xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–19%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: FBC Melgar 1.4 – 1.2 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Alianza Lima 34%.
How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 1–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?
FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la UNSA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
