Value bet: UTC Cajamarca to win @ 1.92 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUTC Cajamarca to win ✗58% · @1.92
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.66
UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees UTC Cajamarca take on Comerciantes Unidos on Saturday 22 August, kicking off at 19:15 (WAT) at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon. UTC Cajamarca are 18th with 6 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Comerciantes Unidos sit 13th on 16 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
UTC Cajamarca's last 5: LDLDL Most recently they lost to Alianza Lima 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Comerciantes Unidos's last 5: LWLDD Most recently they lost to Atletico Grau 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for UTC Cajamarca and 0.9 for Comerciantes Unidos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: UTC Cajamarca 58%, draw 20%, Comerciantes Unidos 22%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: UTC Cajamarca to win at 1.92 – 58% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: UTC Cajamarca 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UTC Cajamarca58%fair 1.74 · @1.92
Draw20%fair 4.98 · @3.30
Comerciantes Unidos22%fair 4.48 · @4.10
2.54Expected goals
1.65UTC Cajamarca xG
0.89Comerciantes Unidos xG
49%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–112%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: UTC Cajamarca 1.7 – 0.9 Comerciantes Unidos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UTC Cajamarca to win✗
58%
1.74
1.92 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UTC Cajamarca / FT UTC Cajamarca✗
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.66
–
Form
UTC Cajamarca – last 6
LDLDLW
16 Aug
@ Alianza Lima
0–1
L
8 Aug
vs ADT
1–1
D
2 Aug
@ Cusco
1–4
L
26 Jul
vs UCV Moquegua
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Atletico Grau
1–3
L
12 Jul
vs Deportiva Agropecuaria
4–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Comerciantes Unidos – last 6
LWLDDD
14 Aug
@ Atletico Grau
0–1
L
7 Aug
vs Cusco
3–1
W
31 Jul
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2–3
L
26 Jul
vs Alianza Lima
2–2
D
18 Jul
@ UCV Moquegua
2–2
D
27 Jun
vs Juan Pablo II College
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UTC Cajamarca and Comerciantes Unidos.
What is the prediction for UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?
On our numbers UTC Cajamarca have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Comerciantes Unidos 22%.
How many goals will there be in UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our predicted score is UTC Cajamarca 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?
UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
