Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Sport Boys to win @ 2.80 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSport Boys to win ✗40% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.69
UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys preview and prediction
The match
UCV Moquegua host Sport Boys in the Primera División on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 19:15 (WAT) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre. UCV Moquegua are 17th with 12 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Sport Boys sit 8th on 26 points (in the top half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
UCV Moquegua's last 5: LDDDD Most recently they lost to Deportivo Garcilaso 0–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sport Boys's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Alianza Lima 1–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sport Boys arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Sport Boys 0–0 UCV Moquegua.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.0 for UCV Moquegua and 1.1 for Sport Boys. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: UCV Moquegua 34%, draw 26%, Sport Boys 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Sport Boys to win at 2.80 – 40% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: UCV Moquegua 1–1 Sport Boys. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UCV Moquegua34%fair 2.93 · @2.64
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.00
Sport Boys40%fair 2.49 · @2.80
2.18Expected goals
1.03UCV Moquegua xG
1.15Sport Boys xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: UCV Moquegua 1.0 – 1.1 Sport Boys expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys?
On our numbers UCV Moquegua have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sport Boys 40%.
How many goals will there be in UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys?
Our predicted score is UCV Moquegua 1–1 Sport Boys, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys?
UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
