Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.38 – our chance 52% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlianza Lima to win ✓68% · @1.20
Double chanceAlianza Lima or draw ✓87% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.38
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗13% · fair 7.70
Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca preview and prediction
The match
Alianza Lima host UTC Cajamarca in the Primera División on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. Alianza Lima are 6th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while UTC Cajamarca sit 18th on 6 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 23 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Alianza Lima's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Sport Boys 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
UTC Cajamarca's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with ADT 1–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Alianza Lima and 0.7 for UTC Cajamarca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alianza Lima 68%, draw 19%, UTC Cajamarca 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.38.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.38 – 52% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Alianza Lima 2–0 UTC Cajamarca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza Lima68%fair 1.47 · @1.20
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @5.50
UTC Cajamarca13%fair 7.96 · @17.50
2.77Expected goals
2.04Alianza Lima xG
0.73UTC Cajamarca xG
52%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–013%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–16%
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 2.0 – 0.7 UTC Cajamarca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win✓
68%
1.47
1.20
Double chance
Alianza Lima or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
2.38 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.48
Half-time result
Alianza Lima ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima✓
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.70
–
Form
Alianza Lima – last 6
DWDWLL
9 Aug
@ Sport Boys
1–1
D
2 Aug
vs Alianza Atletico
3–1
W
26 Jul
@ Comerciantes Unidos
2–2
D
20 Jul
vs Sport Huancayo
2–1
W
28 Jun
vs Alianza Atletico
1–2
L
21 Jun
@ Carlos A. Mannucci
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
UTC Cajamarca – last 6
DLDLWW
8 Aug
vs ADT
1–1
D
2 Aug
@ Cusco
1–4
L
26 Jul
vs UCV Moquegua
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Atletico Grau
1–3
L
12 Jul
vs Deportiva Agropecuaria
4–1
W
26 Jun
vs FC Cajamarca
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Lima and UTC Cajamarca.
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and UTC Cajamarca 13%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our predicted score is Alianza Lima 2–0 UTC Cajamarca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
