Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Istra 1961 to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIstra 1961 to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceIstra 1961 or draw ✗84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.63
Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica preview and prediction
The match
The HNL sees Istra 1961 take on HNK Gorica on Saturday 19 September, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Stadion Aldo Drosina. Istra 1961 are 4th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top four), while HNK Gorica sit 10th on 7 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Istra 1961's last 5: WWDDL Most recently they beat Rudes 3–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
HNK Gorica's last 5: DDLDL Most recently they drew with NK Varazdin 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Istra 1961 arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 April 2026, finished HNK Gorica 1–0 Istra 1961. Across their last 2 meetings Istra 1961 have won 0, HNK Gorica 2, with 0 draws and 1.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Istra 1961 and 1.0 for HNK Gorica. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Value angle: Istra 1961 to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Istra 1961 or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Istra 1961 2–0 HNK Gorica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Istra 196161%fair 1.63 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.40
HNK Gorica16%fair 6.28 · @3.80
3.00Expected goals
2.04Istra 1961 xG
0.96HNK Gorica xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Istra 1961 2.0 – 1.0 HNK Gorica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
Our pick is Istra 1961 or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
On our numbers Istra 1961 have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and HNK Gorica 16%.
How many goals will there be in Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
Our predicted score is Istra 1961 2–0 HNK Gorica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica (HNL) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Aldo Drosina.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
