Value bet: NK Varazdin to win @ 3.40 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultHNK Rijeka to win ✗41% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.44
NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka preview and prediction
The match
NK Varazdin host HNK Rijeka in the HNL on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Stadion Varteks. NK Varazdin are 5th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while HNK Rijeka sit 6th on 18 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
NK Varazdin's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat NK Slaven Belupo 4–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
HNK Rijeka's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Ilves 1–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 April 2026, finished NK Varazdin 1–0 HNK Rijeka.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.5 for NK Varazdin and 1.6 for HNK Rijeka. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: NK Varazdin 35%, draw 25%, HNK Rijeka 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.73.
Value angle: NK Varazdin to win at 3.40 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Rijeka. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
NK Varazdin35%fair 2.88 · @3.40
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.05
HNK Rijeka41%fair 2.46 · @2.15
3.11Expected goals
1.48NK Varazdin xG
1.62HNK Rijeka xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: NK Varazdin 1.5 – 1.6 HNK Rijeka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka?
On our numbers NK Varazdin have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and HNK Rijeka 41%.
How many goals will there be in NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka?
Our predicted score is NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Rijeka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka?
NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka (HNL) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Varteks.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
