Value bet: HNK Hajduk Split to win @ 1.84 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultHNK Hajduk Split to win ✓59% · @1.84
Double chanceHNK Hajduk Split or draw ✓81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.02
HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split preview and prediction
The match
The HNL sees HNK Gorica take on HNK Hajduk Split on Sunday 16 August, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Gradski stadion Velika Gorica. HNK Gorica are 10th with 7 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while HNK Hajduk Split sit 1st on 29 points (top of the table). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
HNK Gorica's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
HNK Hajduk Split's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
HNK Hajduk Split arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.0 for HNK Gorica and 2.0 for HNK Hajduk Split. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Safer route: HNK Hajduk Split or draw (81%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.70.
Value angle: HNK Hajduk Split to win at 1.84 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: HNK Gorica 1–1 HNK Hajduk Split. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
HNK Gorica19%fair 5.37 · @4.00
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.35
HNK Hajduk Split59%fair 1.71 · @1.84
2.98Expected goals
1.02HNK Gorica xG
1.96HNK Hajduk Split xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
0–110%
1–210%
0–210%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: HNK Gorica 1.0 – 2.0 HNK Hajduk Split expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
HNK Hajduk Split to win✓
59%
1.71
1.84 ▲
Double chance
HNK Hajduk Split or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.33
Half-time result
HNK Hajduk Split ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT HNK Hajduk Split / FT HNK Hajduk Split✓
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.02
–
Form
HNK Gorica – last 6
LLLLWL
8 Aug
@ NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1–3
L
1 Aug
vs NK Osijek
0–2
L
23 Jul
vs Shakhtar Donetsk
0–2
L
19 Jul
@ FC St. Pauli
1–2
L
16 Jul
vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1–0
W
13 Jul
vs Göztepe
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
HNK Hajduk Split – last 6
WDWLLW
13 Aug
vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius
4–0
W
9 Aug
vs Istra 1961
2–2
D
6 Aug
@ FK Zalgiris Vilnius
5–2
W
2 Aug
@ NK Varazdin
1–2
L
30 Jul
@ Pafos
0–2
L
23 Jul
vs Pafos
2–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between HNK Gorica and HNK Hajduk Split.
What is the prediction for HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split?
On our numbers HNK Gorica have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 23% and HNK Hajduk Split 59%.
How many goals will there be in HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Our predicted score is HNK Gorica 1–1 HNK Hajduk Split, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split?
HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split (HNL) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion Velika Gorica.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
