Value bet: NK Varazdin to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultHNK Hajduk Split to win ✗44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.61
NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split preview and prediction
The match
NK Varazdin host HNK Hajduk Split in the HNL on Sunday 2 August, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Stadion Varteks. NK Varazdin are 5th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while HNK Hajduk Split sit 1st on 29 points (top of the table).
Form guide
NK Varazdin's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to FK Jablonec 0–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
HNK Hajduk Split's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Pafos 0–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
NK Varazdin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for NK Varazdin and 1.4 for HNK Hajduk Split. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: NK Varazdin to win at 3.30 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk Split. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
NK Varazdin34%fair 2.93 · @3.30
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.20
HNK Hajduk Split44%fair 2.28 · @2.10
2.60Expected goals
1.20NK Varazdin xG
1.41HNK Hajduk Split xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–17%
0–07%
From our goals model: NK Varazdin 1.2 – 1.4 HNK Hajduk Split expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
HNK Hajduk Split to win✗
44%
2.28
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT HNK Hajduk Split / FT HNK Hajduk Split✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.61
–
Form
NK Varazdin – last 6
LWWWWW
30 Jul
@ FK Jablonec
0–2
L
23 Jul
vs FK Jablonec
3–2
W
12 Jul
@ Bihor Oradea
3–1
W
10 Jul
@ Radomlje
1–0
W
4 Jul
vs CSKA 1948
1–0
W
2 Jul
vs FC Voluntari
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
HNK Hajduk Split – last 6
LWLWWW
30 Jul
@ Pafos
0–2
L
23 Jul
vs Pafos
2–0
W
16 Jul
@ Žilina
1–2
L
9 Jul
vs Žilina
2–0
W
1 Jul
@ Celje
1–0
W
27 Jun
@ LNZ Cherkasy
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between NK Varazdin and HNK Hajduk Split.
What is the prediction for NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split?
On our numbers NK Varazdin have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and HNK Hajduk Split 44%.
How many goals will there be in NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Our predicted score is NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk Split, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split?
NK Varazdin vs HNK Hajduk Split (HNL) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Varteks.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
