CD Marathon vs Real Estelí prediction & analysis
CD Marathon or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: CD Marathon to win @ 1.95 – our chance 63% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: CD Marathon 1.5 – 0.5 Real Estelí expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
CD Marathon are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 12% for Real Estelí.
CD Marathon have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.5 per game. Real Estelí have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.5 for CD Marathon, 0.5 for Real Estelí). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (20%), 2–0 (15%), 0–0 (13%).
Our pick is CD Marathon or draw at a 88% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, CD Marathon to win at 1.95 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | CD Marathon to win ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | CD Marathon or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.20 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.45 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.17 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT CD Marathon / FT CD Marathon ✓ | 38% | 2.60 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 20% | 5.09 | – |
Form
CD Marathon – last 6
| 23 Aug | vs Real Espana | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Aug | vs Alianza | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Atlético Choloma | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | @ Antigua GFC | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ Platense FC | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Aug | vs Atletico Independiente | 1–0 | W |
Real Estelí – last 6
| 23 Aug | vs Diriangén | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Aug | vs CS Herediano | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Aug | vs Alianza | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Walter Ferretti | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Aug | @ Antigua GFC | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Jul | @ Jalapa | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CD Marathon and Real Estelí.
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What is the prediction for CD Marathon vs Real Estelí?
Our pick is CD Marathon or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win CD Marathon vs Real Estelí?
On our numbers CD Marathon have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Real Estelí 12%.
How many goals will there be in CD Marathon vs Real Estelí?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is CD Marathon vs Real Estelí?
CD Marathon vs Real Estelí (Concacaf Central American Cup) kicks off on Thursday 27 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.