Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultST Mirren to win ✓73% · @1.15
Double chanceST Mirren or draw ✓93% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.95
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗8% · fair 12.20
ST Mirren vs East Kilbride preview and prediction
The match
East Kilbride travel to The SMISA Stadium in the League Cup on Tuesday 21 July (19:45 WAT) to face ST Mirren.
Form guide
ST Mirren's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Cove Rangers 4–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
East Kilbride's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Dumbarton 5–3 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.2 goals: 3.1 for ST Mirren and 1.1 for East Kilbride. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: ST Mirren 73%, draw 20%, East Kilbride 7%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: ST Mirren 3–1 East Kilbride. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ST Mirren73%fair 1.37 · @1.15
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @6.25
East Kilbride7%fair 14.69 · @14.00
4.16Expected goals
3.06ST Mirren xG
1.10East Kilbride xG
61%Both score
73%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–18%
2–18%
3–07%
2–07%
4–16%
4–06%
From our goals model: ST Mirren 3.1 – 1.1 East Kilbride expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ST Mirren to win✓
73%
1.37
1.15
Double chance
ST Mirren or draw✓
93%
1.07
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.93
Half-time result
ST Mirren ahead at half-time✗
58%
1.72
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ST Mirren / FT ST Mirren✗
54%
1.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
8%
12.20
–
Form
ST Mirren – last 6
WWWWDD
18 Jul
@ Cove Rangers
4–0
W
11 Jul
@ Dumbarton
4–0
W
27 Jun
@ Arbroath
4–2
W
25 May
vs Partick
1–0
W
21 May
@ Partick
1–1
D
17 May
vs Dundee Utd
1–1
D
2.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
East Kilbride – last 6
WLWWWW
18 Jul
vs Dumbarton
5–3
W
14 Jul
@ Cove Rangers
2–3
L
11 Jul
vs Dunfermline
3–0
W
27 Jun
vs Kelty Hearts
4–0
W
21 Feb
vs Dumbarton
3–1
W
17 Feb
@ Elgin City
6–1
W
3.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ST Mirren and East Kilbride.
What is the prediction for ST Mirren vs East Kilbride?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win ST Mirren vs East Kilbride?
On our numbers ST Mirren have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 20% and East Kilbride 7%.
How many goals will there be in ST Mirren vs East Kilbride?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ST Mirren vs East Kilbride?
Our predicted score is ST Mirren 3–1 East Kilbride, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is ST Mirren vs East Kilbride?
ST Mirren vs East Kilbride (League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 21 July 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at The SMISA Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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