Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Mirassol to win @ 1.73 – our chance 61% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMirassol to win ✗61% · @1.73
Double chanceMirassol or draw ✓83% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.71
Mirassol vs LDU de Quito preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Libertadores sees Mirassol take on LDU de Quito on Thursday 13 August, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Mirassol are 2nd with 12 points from 6 games, while LDU de Quito sit 1st on 12 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mirassol's last 5: LLDWD Most recently they lost to Cruzeiro 1–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
LDU de Quito's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Independiente del Valle 0–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 7 May 2026, finished Mirassol 2–0 LDU de Quito. Across their last 2 meetings Mirassol have won 1, LDU de Quito 1, with 0 draws and 2.0 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.5 for Mirassol and 0.6 for LDU de Quito. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mirassol 61%, draw 21%, LDU de Quito 17%.
Safer route: Mirassol or draw (83%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Mirassol to win at 1.73 – 61% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Mirassol 1–0 LDU de Quito. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mirassol61%fair 1.63 · @1.73
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.50
LDU de Quito17%fair 5.82 · @4.90
2.18Expected goals
1.54Mirassol xG
0.63LDU de Quito xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
0–011%
1–111%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.5 – 0.6 LDU de Quito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and LDU de Quito 17%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–0 LDU de Quito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs LDU de Quito?
Mirassol vs LDU de Quito (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 13 August 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cruzeiro1
Flamengo1