Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Flamengo to win @ 2.54 – our chance 44% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlamengo to win ✗44% · @2.54
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.68
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo preview and prediction
The match
Flamengo travel to Governador Magalhães Pinto in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thursday 13 August (01:30 WAT) to face Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro are 2nd with 11 points from 6 games, while Flamengo sit 1st on 16 points.
Form guide
Cruzeiro's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Mirassol 3–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Flamengo's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Vitoria 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 March 2026, finished Flamengo 2–0 Cruzeiro.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Cruzeiro and 1.3 for Flamengo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Flamengo to win at 2.54 – 44% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Cruzeiro 1–1 Flamengo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cruzeiro32%fair 3.12 · @2.90
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.00
Flamengo44%fair 2.26 · @2.54
2.27Expected goals
1.01Cruzeiro xG
1.26Flamengo xG
55%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.0 – 1.3 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Flamengo 44%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 1–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 13 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mirassol1
LDU de Quito1