Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.48 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
1
Value bet: Deportes Tolima to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportes Tolima to win ✗38% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.31
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Libertadores sees Deportes Tolima take on Independiente del Valle on Wednesday 19 August, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Deportes Tolima are 2nd with 8 points from 6 games, while Independiente del Valle sit 1st on 13 points.
Form guide
Deportes Tolima's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Internacional de Bogota 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Delfin SC 3–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente del Valle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Deportes Tolima and 1.1 for Independiente del Valle. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportes Tolima 38%, draw 25%, Independiente del Valle 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Deportes Tolima to win at 3.00 – 38% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Deportes Tolima 1–1 Independiente del Valle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportes Tolima38%fair 2.62 · @3.00
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.10
Independiente del Valle37%fair 2.68 · @2.42
2.24Expected goals
1.13Deportes Tolima xG
1.11Independiente del Valle xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.1 – 1.1 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportes Tolima to win✗
38%
2.62
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportes Tolima / FT Deportes Tolima✗
20%
4.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.31
–
Form
Deportes Tolima – last 6
WLWLWW
9 Aug
vs Internacional de Bogota
2–1
W
5 Aug
vs Independiente Medellin
2–3
L
1 Aug
@ Alianza Valledupar
2–1
W
29 Jul
@ Quindio
1–2
L
26 Jul
vs Junior
2–1
W
22 Jul
vs Quindio
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWWWW
15 Aug
vs Delfin SC
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ LDU de Quito
2–0
W
2 Aug
vs Deportivo Cuenca
1–0
W
30 Jul
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ Orense SC
3–2
W
22 Jul
vs Tecnico Universitario
3–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportes Tolima and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Independiente del Valle 37%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 19 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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