Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Valeriodoce to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultValeriodoce to win ✓61% · @1.95
Double chanceValeriodoce or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓18% · fair 5.51
Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova preview and prediction
The match
Villa Nova travel to face Valeriodoce in the Mineiro 2 on Sunday 12 July (19:00 WAT).
Form guide
Valeriodoce's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Coimbra 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Villa Nova's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Aymorés 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Valeriodoce and 0.6 for Villa Nova. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Valeriodoce 61%, draw 27%, Villa Nova 12%.
Safer route: Valeriodoce or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Value angle: Valeriodoce to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Valeriodoce or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Valeriodoce 1–0 Villa Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Valeriodoce61%fair 1.65 · @1.95
Draw27%fair 3.68 · @2.90
Villa Nova12%fair 8.26 · @3.75
2.17Expected goals
1.59Valeriodoce xG
0.58Villa Nova xG
41%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–011%
1–111%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Valeriodoce 1.6 – 0.6 Villa Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valeriodoce to win✓
61%
1.65
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Valeriodoce or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valeriodoce / FT Valeriodoce✗
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
18%
5.51
–
Form
Valeriodoce – last 6
DWWDWD
5 Jul
@ Coimbra
0–0
D
2 Jul
vs Democrata SL
1–0
W
28 Jun
@ Aymorés
1–0
W
24 Jun
vs Ipatinga
1–1
D
20 Jun
@ Ipatinga
1–0
W
18 Jun
vs Aymorés
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Villa Nova – last 6
DLWLWW
4 Jul
vs Aymorés
1–1
D
1 Jul
@ Coimbra
1–2
L
27 Jun
vs Ipatinga
6–0
W
24 Jun
@ Democrata SL
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Democrata SL
2–1
W
17 Jun
@ Ipatinga
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valeriodoce and Villa Nova.
What is the prediction for Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova?
Our pick is Valeriodoce or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova?
On our numbers Valeriodoce have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Villa Nova 12%.
How many goals will there be in Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova?
Our predicted score is Valeriodoce 1–0 Villa Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova?
Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova (Mineiro 2) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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