Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 57% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruzeiro to win ✓64% · @1.36
Double chanceCruzeiro or draw ✓86% · @1.05
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.08
Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense-sc preview and prediction
The match
Chapecoense-sc travel to face Cruzeiro in the Copa Do Brasil on Wednesday 5 August (23:00 WAT).
Form guide
Cruzeiro's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with Chapecoense-sc 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Chapecoense-sc's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Cruzeiro 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Cruzeiro arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 August 2026, finished Chapecoense-sc 0–0 Cruzeiro. Across their last 2 meetings Cruzeiro have won 1, Chapecoense-sc 0, with 1 draw and 1.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Cruzeiro and 0.5 for Chapecoense-sc. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 57% likely.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.00 – 57% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.38, above our fair price of 1.31, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cruzeiro 1–0 Chapecoense-sc. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cruzeiro64%fair 1.56 · @1.36
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @4.75
Chapecoense-sc14%fair 7.28 · @8.00
2.06Expected goals
1.54Cruzeiro xG
0.52Chapecoense-sc xG
47%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–015%
0–013%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.5 – 0.5 Chapecoense-sc expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense-sc?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chapecoense-sc 14%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense-sc?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 1–0 Chapecoense-sc, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense-sc?
Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense-sc (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Wednesday 5 August 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Remo0
Santos1
Gremio1
Mirassol0