Value bet: Liverpool Montevideo to win @ 1.88 – our chance 61% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✗61% · @1.88
Double chanceLiverpool Montevideo or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.42
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo preview and prediction
The match
Cerro Largo travel to Estadio Belvedere in the Primera División Apertura on Monday 8 June (23:00 WAT) to face Liverpool Montevideo. Liverpool Montevideo are 1st with 30 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Cerro Largo sit 15th on 9 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Liverpool Montevideo's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Boston River 1–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cerro Largo's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Cerro 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Liverpool Montevideo 2–0 Cerro Largo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Liverpool Montevideo and 0.7 for Cerro Largo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Liverpool Montevideo 61%, draw 23%, Cerro Largo 16%.
Safer route: Liverpool Montevideo or draw (84%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Liverpool Montevideo to win at 1.88 – 61% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro Largo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Liverpool Montevideo61%fair 1.65 · @1.88
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.30
Cerro Largo16%fair 6.14 · @3.95
2.36Expected goals
1.66Liverpool Montevideo xG
0.71Cerro Largo xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.7 – 0.7 Cerro Largo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✗
61%
1.65
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Liverpool Montevideo or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✗
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cerro Largo 16%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro Largo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 8 June 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
