Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 60% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultChelsea to win ✓40% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.68
Chelsea vs AC Milan preview and prediction
The match
AC Milan travel to Gelora Bung Karno Madya Stadium in the Friendlies Clubs on Saturday 8 August (13:00 WAT) to face Chelsea.
Form guide
Chelsea's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Juventus 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
AC Milan's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with Inter 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.6 for Chelsea and 1.5 for AC Milan. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chelsea 40%, draw 24%, AC Milan 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 60% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.32, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Chelsea 1–1 AC Milan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chelsea40%fair 2.52 · @2.80
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.25
AC Milan36%fair 2.76 · @2.50
3.18Expected goals
1.63Chelsea xG
1.55AC Milan xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Chelsea 1.6 – 1.5 AC Milan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chelsea to win✓
40%
2.52
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
2.25 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.70
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chelsea / FT Chelsea✓
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.68
–
Form
Chelsea – last 6
LLWLWD
5 Aug
vs Juventus
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Tottenham
1–2
L
28 Jul
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
6–4
W
24 May
@ Sunderland
1–2
L
19 May
vs Tottenham
2–1
W
9 May
@ Liverpool
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AC Milan – last 6
DDLWLW
5 Aug
vs Inter
1–1
D
25 Jul
@ Celtic
2–2
D
24 May
vs Cagliari
1–2
L
17 May
@ Genoa
2–1
W
3 May
@ Sassuolo
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Hellas Verona
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chelsea and AC Milan.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Chelsea vs AC Milan?
On our numbers Chelsea have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AC Milan 36%.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs AC Milan?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs AC Milan?
Our predicted score is Chelsea 1–1 AC Milan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Chelsea vs AC Milan?
Chelsea vs AC Milan (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Gelora Bung Karno Madya Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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