Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl-Karma to win ✓65% · @1.62
Double chanceAl-Karma or draw ✓88% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓19% · fair 5.24
Al-Karma vs Diyala preview and prediction
The match
Diyala travel to face Al-Karma in the Iraqi League on Wednesday 27 May (16:00 WAT). Al-Karma are 1st with 30 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Diyala sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Al-Karma's last 5: DDDDD Most recently they drew with Al Talaba 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Diyala's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Baghdad 1–4 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Al-Karma and 0.5 for Diyala. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al-Karma 65%, draw 23%, Diyala 12%.
Safer route: Al-Karma or draw (88%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Al-Karma to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Al-Karma 1–0 Diyala. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al-Karma65%fair 1.54 · @1.62
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.50
Diyala12%fair 8.44 · @4.50
2.14Expected goals
1.62Al-Karma xG
0.52Diyala xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Al-Karma 1.6 – 0.5 Diyala expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al-Karma to win✓
65%
1.54
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Al-Karma or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al-Karma / FT Al-Karma✗
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
19%
5.24
–
Form
Al-Karma – last 6
DDDDDD
19 May
@ Al Talaba
1–1
D
14 May
@ Naft Maysan
1–1
D
5 May
@ Naft
0–0
D
26 Apr
@ Al-Qasim
2–2
D
22 Apr
@ Al Karkh
0–0
D
17 Apr
vs Al Shorta
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Diyala – last 6
LWDLLW
19 May
vs Baghdad
1–4
L
11 May
@ Zakho
2–1
W
6 May
@ Gharraf
0–0
D
1 May
vs Al Talaba
0–1
L
22 Apr
@ Al Zawra'a
0–2
L
13 Apr
@ Al Karkh
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al-Karma and Diyala.
Our pick is Al-Karma to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Al-Karma vs Diyala?
On our numbers Al-Karma have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Diyala 12%.
How many goals will there be in Al-Karma vs Diyala?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al-Karma vs Diyala?
Our predicted score is Al-Karma 1–0 Diyala, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Al-Karma vs Diyala?
Al-Karma vs Diyala (Iraqi League) kicks off on Wednesday 27 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
