Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNoroeste to win ✓65% · @1.62
Double chanceNoroeste or draw ✓87% · fair 1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗59% · fair 1.68
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.76
Noroeste vs Comercial preview and prediction
The match
Noroeste host Comercial in the Copa Paulista on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Alfredo de Castilho.
Form guide
Noroeste's last 5: DWDDL Most recently they drew with União São João 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Comercial's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to XV de Piracicaba 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Comercial arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 July 2026, finished Comercial 2–0 Noroeste.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Noroeste and 0.6 for Comercial. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 41%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Noroeste to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Noroeste 1–0 Comercial. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Noroeste65%fair 1.54 · @1.62
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.60
Comercial13%fair 7.99 · @4.50
2.28Expected goals
1.70Noroeste xG
0.58Comercial xG
41%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–015%
0–010%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Noroeste 1.7 – 0.6 Comercial expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Noroeste to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Noroeste vs Comercial?
On our numbers Noroeste have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Comercial 13%.
How many goals will there be in Noroeste vs Comercial?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Noroeste vs Comercial?
Our predicted score is Noroeste 1–0 Comercial, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Noroeste vs Comercial?
Noroeste vs Comercial (Copa Paulista) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alfredo de Castilho.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Grêmio Prudente1
Marília0
Juventus5
Oeste0
Linense2
Bandeirante SP0
XV de Piracicaba1
União São João1
Santo André1
EC São Bernardo0