Value bet: Cerrito to win @ 2.55 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerrito to win ✓42% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓11% · fair 9.46
Paysandu vs Cerrito preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División sees Paysandu take on Cerrito on Saturday 30 May, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT). Paysandu are 5th with 35 points from 25 games (in the top half), while Cerrito sit 8th on 34 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Paysandu's last 4: DLWL Most recently they drew with Plaza Colonia 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Cerrito's last 3: WDW Most recently they beat Sportivo Huracan 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cerrito arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Paysandu and 1.4 for Cerrito. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 56%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paysandu 34%, draw 24%, Cerrito 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Cerrito to win at 2.55 – 42% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Paysandu 1–1 Cerrito. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paysandu34%fair 2.92 · @2.55
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.20
Cerrito42%fair 2.40 · @2.55
2.55Expected goals
1.20Paysandu xG
1.35Cerrito xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Paysandu 1.2 – 1.4 Cerrito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerrito to win✓
42%
2.40
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerrito / FT Cerrito✗
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
11%
9.46
–
Form
Paysandu – last 4
DLWL
17 Apr
@ Plaza Colonia
1–1
D
10 Apr
vs Rentistas
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs Miramar
2–0
W
13 Mar
vs Colón
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Cerrito – last 3
WDW
24 May
vs Sportivo Huracan
2–0
W
19 Apr
vs La Luz
0–0
D
6 Apr
vs Uruguay Montevideo
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paysandu and Cerrito.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Paysandu vs Cerrito?
On our numbers Paysandu have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cerrito 42%.
How many goals will there be in Paysandu vs Cerrito?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paysandu vs Cerrito?
Our predicted score is Paysandu 1–1 Cerrito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Paysandu vs Cerrito?
Paysandu vs Cerrito (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
