Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.80Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSouth Africa to win ✓65% · @1.80
Double chanceSouth Africa or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.28
South Africa vs Guinea preview and prediction
The match
The Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification sees South Africa take on Guinea on Saturday 26 September, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Orlando Stadium. South Africa are 1st with 14 points from 6 games, while Guinea sit 3rd on 9 points.
Form guide
South Africa's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Canada 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Guinea's last 3: LLD Most recently they lost to Northern Ireland 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
South Africa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for South Africa and 0.5 for Guinea. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: South Africa 65%, draw 20%, Guinea 15%.
Safer route: South Africa or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was South Africa to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: South Africa 1–0 Guinea. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
South Africa65%fair 1.54 · @1.80
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.10
Guinea15%fair 6.70 · @4.20
2.12Expected goals
1.57South Africa xG
0.55Guinea xG
46%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: South Africa 1.6 – 0.5 Guinea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
South Africa to win✓
65%
1.54
1.80 ▲
Double chance
South Africa or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT South Africa / FT South Africa✓
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.28
–
Form
South Africa – last 6
LWDLDL
28 Jun
vs Canada
0–1
L
25 Jun
vs South Korea
1–0
W
18 Jun
@ Czechia
1–1
D
11 Jun
@ Mexico
0–2
L
29 May
vs Nicaragua
0–0
D
31 Mar
vs Panama
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Guinea – last 3
LLD
4 Jun
@ Northern Ireland
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Benin
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs Togo
2–2
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between South Africa and Guinea.
What is the prediction for South Africa vs Guinea?
Our pick is South Africa to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win South Africa vs Guinea?
On our numbers South Africa have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Guinea 15%.
How many goals will there be in South Africa vs Guinea?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for South Africa vs Guinea?
Our predicted score is South Africa 1–0 Guinea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is South Africa vs Guinea?
South Africa vs Guinea (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Orlando Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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