La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLa Luz to win ✓38% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓66% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.27
La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División sees La Luz take on Uruguay Montevideo on Sunday 24 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT). La Luz are 5th with 37 points from 26 games (in the top half), while Uruguay Montevideo sit 14th on 22 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
La Luz's last 4: DDDD Most recently they drew with Oriental 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Uruguay Montevideo's last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to Atenas 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for La Luz and 1.0 for Uruguay Montevideo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: La Luz 38%, draw 25%, Uruguay Montevideo 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 52% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: La Luz 1–0 Uruguay Montevideo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
La Luz38%fair 2.61 · @2.38
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.00
Uruguay Montevideo36%fair 2.75 · @2.90
2.00Expected goals
1.02La Luz xG
0.98Uruguay Montevideo xG
52%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–114%
0–013%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: La Luz 1.0 – 1.0 Uruguay Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
La Luz to win✓
38%
2.61
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.27
–
Form
La Luz – last 4
DDDD
18 May
@ Oriental
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Cerrito
0–0
D
28 Mar
vs Sportivo Huracan
2–2
D
17 Mar
@ Tacuarembo
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Uruguay Montevideo – last 5
LLWDD
9 May
@ Atenas
1–2
L
6 Apr
@ Cerrito
1–2
L
1 Apr
@ Atenas
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Sportivo Huracan
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Fenix
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between La Luz and Uruguay Montevideo.
What is the prediction for La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo?
On our numbers La Luz have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Uruguay Montevideo 36%.
How many goals will there be in La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo?
Our predicted score is La Luz 1–0 Uruguay Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo?
La Luz vs Uruguay Montevideo (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
