Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: UD Ourense to win @ 2.90 – our chance 44% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUD Ourense to win ✓44% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗67% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗21% · fair 4.69
Conquense vs UD Ourense preview and prediction
The match
UD Ourense travel to Estadio La Fuensanta in the Segunda División RFEF Play Offs on Sunday 31 May (18:00 WAT) to face Conquense.
Form guide
Conquense's last 5: LDWWL Most recently they lost to UD Ourense 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
UD Ourense's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Conquense 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
UD Ourense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 May 2026, finished UD Ourense 1–0 Conquense.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.2 goals: 0.5 for Conquense and 0.7 for UD Ourense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 89% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Conquense 31%, draw 26%, UD Ourense 44%.
Both teams to score: no (58%) at 1.62.
Value angle: UD Ourense to win at 2.90 – 44% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Conquense 0–0 UD Ourense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Conquense31%fair 3.26 · @2.50
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.50
UD Ourense44%fair 2.29 · @2.90
1.17Expected goals
0.48Conquense xG
0.69UD Ourense xG
42%Both score
11%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–031%
0–121%
1–015%
1–110%
0–27%
2–04%
From our goals model: Conquense 0.5 – 0.7 UD Ourense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Conquense vs UD Ourense?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Conquense vs UD Ourense?
On our numbers Conquense have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 26% and UD Ourense 44%.
How many goals will there be in Conquense vs UD Ourense?
We expect about 1.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 11% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Conquense vs UD Ourense?
Our predicted score is Conquense 0–0 UD Ourense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.2 goals in total.
When is Conquense vs UD Ourense?
Conquense vs UD Ourense (Segunda División RFEF Play Offs) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Fuensanta.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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