Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Ajax to win @ 1.81 – our chance 67% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAjax to win ✓67% · @1.81
Double chanceAjax or draw ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.69
Ajax vs Groningen preview and prediction
The match
Ajax host Groningen in the Eredivisie on Thursday 21 May, with kick-off at 17:45 (WAT) at Kras Stadion. Ajax are 3rd with 25 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Groningen sit 9th on 15 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Ajax's last 3: DDD Most recently they drew with Heerenveen 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Groningen's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Heracles 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.5 for Ajax and 1.0 for Groningen. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ajax 67%, draw 19%, Groningen 14%.
Safer route: Ajax or draw (86%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Ajax to win at 1.81 – 67% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ajax or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ajax 2–0 Groningen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ajax67%fair 1.50 · @1.81
Draw19%fair 5.25 · @3.85
Groningen14%fair 6.95 · @3.90
3.53Expected goals
2.54Ajax xG
0.99Groningen xG
64%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–09%
2–19%
3–08%
3–18%
1–07%
1–17%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.5 – 1.0 Groningen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✓
67%
1.50
1.81 ▲
Double chance
Ajax or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.56
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.55
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✓
48%
2.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.69
–
Form
Ajax – last 3
DDD
17 May
@ Heerenveen
0–0
D
22 Mar
@ Feyenoord
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ PEC Zwolle
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Groningen – last 5
WWDLL
17 May
@ Heracles
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs AZ Alkmaar
3–0
W
13 Mar
@ PEC Zwolle
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ FC Volendam
2–3
L
22 Feb
@ Twente
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and Groningen.
Our pick is Ajax or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ajax vs Groningen?
On our numbers Ajax have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Groningen 14%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Groningen?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Groningen?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–0 Groningen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs Groningen?
Ajax vs Groningen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Kras Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
