Value bet: Arnedo to win @ 2.80 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultArnedo to win ✓40% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.71
Arnedo vs Calahorra preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 16 sees Arnedo take on Calahorra on Sunday 24 May, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Arnedo's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Calahorra 2–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Calahorra's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Arnedo 0–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Arnedo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Calahorra 0–2 Arnedo. Across their last 2 meetings Arnedo have won 1, Calahorra 0, with 1 draw and 2.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Arnedo and 1.4 for Calahorra. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 54% and both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arnedo 40%, draw 23%, Calahorra 37%.
Value angle: Arnedo to win at 2.80 – 40% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 54% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Arnedo 2–1 Calahorra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arnedo40%fair 2.52 · @2.80
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.25
Calahorra37%fair 2.68 · @2.20
2.92Expected goals
1.49Arnedo xG
1.44Calahorra xG
54%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Arnedo 1.5 – 1.4 Calahorra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Arnedo vs Calahorra?
On our numbers Arnedo have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Calahorra 37%.
How many goals will there be in Arnedo vs Calahorra?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arnedo vs Calahorra?
Our predicted score is Arnedo 2–1 Calahorra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Arnedo vs Calahorra?
Arnedo vs Calahorra (Tercera División RFEF Group 16) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
