Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Junior to win @ 1.90 – our chance 65% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultJunior to win ✗65% · @1.90
Double chanceJunior or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.63
Junior vs Santa Fe preview and prediction
The match
Junior host Santa Fe in the Primera A on Sunday 24 May, with kick-off at 02:30 (WAT) at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez. Junior are 14th with 19 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while Santa Fe sit 5th on 31 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Junior's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Sporting Cristal 3–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Santa Fe's last 5: WDWDD Most recently they beat Platense 2–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Santa Fe 1–1 Junior. Across their last 2 meetings Junior have won 0, Santa Fe 1, with 1 draw and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Junior and 0.8 for Santa Fe. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Junior 65%, draw 20%, Santa Fe 15%.
Safer route: Junior or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Junior to win at 1.90 – 65% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Junior or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Junior 1–0 Santa Fe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Junior65%fair 1.53 · @1.90
Draw20%fair 5.07 · @3.40
Santa Fe15%fair 6.63 · @4.00
2.68Expected goals
1.91Junior xG
0.77Santa Fe xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Junior 1.9 – 0.8 Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Junior or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Junior vs Santa Fe?
On our numbers Junior have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Santa Fe 15%.
How many goals will there be in Junior vs Santa Fe?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Junior vs Santa Fe?
Our predicted score is Junior 1–0 Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Junior vs Santa Fe?
Junior vs Santa Fe (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
