Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Atletico Nacional to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.68 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.68Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✓67% · @1.68
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.96
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima preview and prediction
The match
Deportes Tolima travel to Estadio Atanasio Girardot in the Primera A on Sunday 24 May (00:00 WAT) to face Atletico Nacional. Atletico Nacional are 1st with 39 points from 18 games (top of the table), while Deportes Tolima sit 9th on 26 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico Nacional's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Deportes Tolima 1–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Deportes Tolima's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Coquimbo Unido 0–3 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Nacional arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Deportes Tolima 0–1 Atletico Nacional. Across their last 2 meetings Atletico Nacional have won 1, Deportes Tolima 1, with 0 draws and 1.0 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Atletico Nacional and 0.7 for Deportes Tolima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico Nacional 67%, draw 19%, Deportes Tolima 14%.
Safer route: Atletico Nacional or draw (86%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico Nacional to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.68, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportes Tolima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Nacional67%fair 1.49 · @1.68
Draw19%fair 5.29 · @3.70
Deportes Tolima14%fair 7.11 · @4.90
2.57Expected goals
1.88Atletico Nacional xG
0.69Deportes Tolima xG
49%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.9 – 0.7 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Atletico Nacional to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.68.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Deportes Tolima 14%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
