Value bet: Danubio to win @ 3.70 – our chance 30% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✓48% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.10
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Maldonado host Danubio in the Primera División Apertura on Monday 18 May, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT). Deportivo Maldonado are 4th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Danubio sit 14th on 10 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Deportivo Maldonado's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Boston River 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Danubio's last 5: DWDLW Most recently they drew with Defensor Sporting 0–0 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.1 for Danubio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Danubio to win at 3.70 – 30% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Danubio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Maldonado48%fair 2.08 · @1.98
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.20
Danubio30%fair 3.34 · @3.70
2.49Expected goals
1.43Deportivo Maldonado xG
1.05Danubio xG
55%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
2–19%
0–19%
2–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Deportivo Maldonado 1.4 – 1.1 Danubio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Maldonado to win✓
48%
2.08
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.93 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado✓
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.10
–
Form
Deportivo Maldonado – last 6
WLWLDW
11 May
vs Boston River
2–1
W
31 Mar
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
24 Mar
vs Atletico Torque
1–0
W
20 Mar
@ Cerro Largo
1–3
L
7 Mar
@ Wanderers
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Juventud
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Danubio – last 5
DWDLW
26 Mar
vs Defensor Sporting
0–0
D
16 Mar
vs Juventud
4–1
W
8 Mar
@ Penarol
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Racing Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Feb
vs Boston River
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Maldonado and Danubio.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?
On our numbers Deportivo Maldonado have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Danubio 30%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Danubio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio?
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 18 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
