Value bet: Moralo to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAzuaga to win ✗44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.88
Azuaga vs Moralo preview and prediction
The match
Moralo travel to face Azuaga in the Tercera División RFEF Group 14 on Sunday 17 May (12:00 WAT). Azuaga are 1st with 23 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Moralo sit 3rd on 21 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Azuaga's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Montijo 4–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Moralo's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Azuaga 1–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 April 2026, finished Moralo 1–1 Azuaga.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Azuaga and 1.1 for Moralo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Azuaga 44%, draw 22%, Moralo 34%.
Value angle: Moralo to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 55% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Azuaga 1–1 Moralo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Azuaga44%fair 2.26 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.10
Moralo34%fair 2.97 · @3.20
2.49Expected goals
1.35Azuaga xG
1.13Moralo xG
46%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Azuaga 1.4 – 1.1 Moralo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Azuaga vs Moralo?
On our numbers Azuaga have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Moralo 34%.
How many goals will there be in Azuaga vs Moralo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Azuaga vs Moralo?
Our predicted score is Azuaga 1–1 Moralo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Azuaga vs Moralo?
Azuaga vs Moralo (Tercera División RFEF Group 14) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
