Value bet: Santa Cruz RS to win @ 3.80 – our chance 32% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGramadense to win ✗44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗69% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.48
Gramadense vs Santa Cruz RS preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Gaúcha sees Gramadense take on Santa Cruz RS on Wednesday 13 May, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Gramadense and 0.9 for Santa Cruz RS. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gramadense 44%, draw 24%, Santa Cruz RS 32%.
Value angle: Santa Cruz RS to win at 3.80 – 32% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Gramadense 1–0 Santa Cruz RS. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gramadense44%fair 2.27 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @2.80
Santa Cruz RS32%fair 3.13 · @3.80
1.96Expected goals
1.09Gramadense xG
0.86Santa Cruz RS xG
43%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Gramadense 1.1 – 0.9 Santa Cruz RS expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gramadense to win✗
44%
2.27
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gramadense / FT Gramadense✗
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.48
–
Form
Gramadense
No recent results on record.
Santa Cruz RS
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gramadense and Santa Cruz RS.
What is the prediction for Gramadense vs Santa Cruz RS?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Gramadense vs Santa Cruz RS?
On our numbers Gramadense have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Santa Cruz RS 32%.
How many goals will there be in Gramadense vs Santa Cruz RS?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gramadense vs Santa Cruz RS?
Our predicted score is Gramadense 1–0 Santa Cruz RS, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Gramadense vs Santa Cruz RS?
Gramadense vs Santa Cruz RS (Copa Gaúcha) kicks off on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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