Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Al Minaa Basra to win @ 3.60 – our chance 35% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNaft to win ✗41% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.45
Naft vs Al Minaa Basra preview and prediction
The match
Naft host Al Minaa Basra in the Iraqi League on Thursday 14 May, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT). Naft are 3rd with 25 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Al Minaa Basra sit 9th on 17 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Naft's last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with Al-Karma 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Al Minaa Basra's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Al-Qasim 3–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Naft and 1.0 for Al Minaa Basra. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Naft 41%, draw 25%, Al Minaa Basra 35%.
Value angle: Al Minaa Basra to win at 3.60 – 35% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Naft 1–1 Al Minaa Basra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Naft41%fair 2.44 · @2.00
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Al Minaa Basra35%fair 2.90 · @3.60
2.13Expected goals
1.13Naft xG
1.00Al Minaa Basra xG
44%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–012%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Naft 1.1 – 1.0 Al Minaa Basra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Naft to win✗
41%
2.44
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Naft / FT Naft✗
22%
4.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.45
–
Form
Naft – last 6
DDLWDD
5 May
vs Al-Karma
0–0
D
22 Apr
@ Mosul
0–0
D
14 Apr
vs Erbil
0–2
L
9 Apr
vs Gharraf
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0–0
D
30 Mar
@ Al Talaba
0–0
D
0.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Al Minaa Basra – last 6
DWWLLL
6 May
@ Al-Qasim
3–3
D
28 Apr
@ Gharraf
1–0
W
21 Apr
vs Baghdad
4–0
W
13 Apr
@ Newroz
1–4
L
9 Apr
@ Al Kahrabaa
0–2
L
5 Apr
vs Naft Maysan
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naft and Al Minaa Basra.
What is the prediction for Naft vs Al Minaa Basra?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Naft vs Al Minaa Basra?
On our numbers Naft have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Al Minaa Basra 35%.
How many goals will there be in Naft vs Al Minaa Basra?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naft vs Al Minaa Basra?
Our predicted score is Naft 1–1 Al Minaa Basra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Naft vs Al Minaa Basra?
Naft vs Al Minaa Basra (Iraqi League) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
