Value bet: Deportes Tolima to win @ 3.35 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Pasto to win ✗44% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.85
Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima preview and prediction
The match
Deportes Tolima travel to Estadio Departamental Libertad in the Primera A on Thursday 14 May (00:00 WAT) to face Deportivo Pasto. Deportivo Pasto are 18th with 15 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Deportes Tolima sit 9th on 26 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Deportivo Pasto's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Deportes Tolima 0–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Deportes Tolima's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Deportivo Pasto 1–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportes Tolima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo Pasto. Across their last 2 meetings Deportivo Pasto have won 1, Deportes Tolima 1, with 0 draws and 1.0 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Deportivo Pasto and 1.1 for Deportes Tolima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Deportes Tolima to win at 3.35 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Deportes Tolima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Pasto44%fair 2.29 · @2.18
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.20
Deportes Tolima34%fair 2.93 · @3.35
2.41Expected goals
1.30Deportivo Pasto xG
1.11Deportes Tolima xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Deportivo Pasto 1.3 – 1.1 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Deportivo Pasto have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportes Tolima 34%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?
Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima (Primera A) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Departamental Libertad.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
