Value bet: Deportivo Pasto to win @ 3.90 – our chance 33% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportes Tolima to win ✓45% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 8.74
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto preview and prediction
The match
The Primera A sees Deportes Tolima take on Deportivo Pasto on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 00:10 (WAT) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Deportes Tolima are 9th with 26 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Deportivo Pasto sit 18th on 15 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Deportes Tolima's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Club Nacional 3–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportivo Pasto's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Junior 3–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 April 2026, finished Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Deportes Tolima.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Deportes Tolima and 1.1 for Deportivo Pasto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Deportivo Pasto to win at 3.90 – 33% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Deportes Tolima 1–1 Deportivo Pasto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportes Tolima45%fair 2.21 · @1.97
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.25
Deportivo Pasto33%fair 3.06 · @3.90
2.49Expected goals
1.38Deportes Tolima xG
1.11Deportivo Pasto xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.4 – 1.1 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportivo Pasto 33%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–1 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 00:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
