Good pick · fair odds 1.70 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
2
Value bet: Gozzano to win @ 2.80 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGozzano to win ✗40% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.55
Derthona vs Gozzano preview and prediction
The match
Gozzano travel to face Derthona in the Serie D Girone A on Sunday 10 May (15:00 WAT). Derthona are 4th with 19 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Gozzano sit 11th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Derthona's last 5: DDLLD Most recently they drew with Saluzzo 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Gozzano's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Cairese 1–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Gozzano arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Derthona and 1.2 for Gozzano. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 47%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derthona 36%, draw 24%, Gozzano 40%.
Value angle: Gozzano to win at 2.80 – 40% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 59% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: Derthona 1–1 Gozzano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derthona36%fair 2.81 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.10
Gozzano40%fair 2.48 · @2.80
2.35Expected goals
1.12Derthona xG
1.22Gozzano xG
47%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Derthona 1.1 – 1.2 Gozzano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gozzano to win✗
40%
2.48
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gozzano / FT Gozzano✗
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.55
–
Form
Derthona – last 6
DDLLDL
3 May
@ Saluzzo
1–1
D
26 Apr
vs Imperia
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Città di Varese
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Celle Varazze
0–3
L
22 Mar
vs Asti
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Cairese
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Gozzano – last 6
WLWDDD
3 May
vs Cairese
1–0
W
26 Apr
@ Biellese
0–2
L
19 Apr
vs Chisola
3–2
W
2 Apr
vs Lavagnese
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Vado
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Città di Varese
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derthona and Gozzano.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Derthona vs Gozzano?
On our numbers Derthona have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gozzano 40%.
How many goals will there be in Derthona vs Gozzano?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derthona vs Gozzano?
Our predicted score is Derthona 1–1 Gozzano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Derthona vs Gozzano?
Derthona vs Gozzano (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cairese0