Value bet: Heraclea to win @ 2.80 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultHeraclea to win ✗40% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.34
Nola 1925 vs Heraclea preview and prediction
The match
Heraclea travel to face Nola 1925 in the Serie D Girone H on Sunday 10 May (15:00 WAT).
Form guide
Nola 1925's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Martina Franca 2–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Heraclea's last 5: WLLDD Most recently they beat Ferrandina 2–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Nola 1925 and 1.3 for Heraclea. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nola 1925 36%, draw 24%, Heraclea 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Heraclea to win at 2.80 – 40% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Nola 1925 1–1 Heraclea. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nola 192536%fair 2.75 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.25
Heraclea40%fair 2.51 · @2.80
2.48Expected goals
1.20Nola 1925 xG
1.28Heraclea xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Nola 1925 1.2 – 1.3 Heraclea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Heraclea to win✗
40%
2.51
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heraclea / FT Heraclea✗
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.34
–
Form
Nola 1925 – last 6
WLDLLL
3 May
vs Martina Franca
2–1
W
26 Apr
@ Paganese
0–5
L
19 Apr
vs Ferrandina
0–0
D
2 Apr
vs Barletta
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Pompei
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Virtus Francavilla
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Heraclea – last 6
WLLDDD
3 May
vs Ferrandina
2–1
W
26 Apr
@ Martina Franca
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs Barletta
1–3
L
2 Apr
vs Manfredonia
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Francavilla
2–2
D
22 Mar
vs Sarnese
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nola 1925 and Heraclea.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Nola 1925 vs Heraclea?
On our numbers Nola 1925 have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Heraclea 40%.
How many goals will there be in Nola 1925 vs Heraclea?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nola 1925 vs Heraclea?
Our predicted score is Nola 1925 1–1 Heraclea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Nola 1925 vs Heraclea?
Nola 1925 vs Heraclea (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sarnese2
Pompei1