Value bet: Penarol to win @ 1.65 – our chance 65% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✓65% · @1.65
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.21
Cerro Largo vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Cerro Largo take on Penarol on Tuesday 12 May, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla. Cerro Largo are 15th with 9 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Penarol sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Cerro Largo's last 5: WLDDL Most recently they beat Progreso 1–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Penarol's last 5: DDLDL Most recently they drew with Platense 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Cerro Largo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.6 for Cerro Largo and 1.7 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerro Largo 14%, draw 21%, Penarol 65%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Penarol to win at 1.65 – 65% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Cerro Largo 0–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro Largo14%fair 7.32 · @5.10
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.50
Penarol65%fair 1.53 · @1.65
2.38Expected goals
0.63Cerro Largo xG
1.75Penarol xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–214%
1–110%
0–09%
1–29%
0–38%
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 0.6 – 1.7 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✓
65%
1.53
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.31
1.25
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.21
–
Form
Cerro Largo – last 6
WLDDLW
3 May
@ Progreso
1–0
W
20 Apr
@ Boston River
0–1
L
11 Apr
vs Cerro
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Albion FC
2–2
D
25 Mar
@ Club Nacional
0–3
L
20 Mar
vs Deportivo Maldonado
3–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Penarol – last 6
DDLDLL
7 May
@ Platense
1–1
D
4 May
vs Defensor Sporting
1–1
D
1 May
@ Corinthians
0–2
L
21 Apr
vs Juventud
2–2
D
17 Apr
vs Platense
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro Largo and Penarol.
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Penarol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Penarol?
On our numbers Cerro Largo have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Penarol 65%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Largo vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Cerro Largo 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Cerro Largo vs Penarol?
Cerro Largo vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
