Value bet: AEK Larnaca to win @ 2.45 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAEK Larnaca to win ✓44% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.10
Aris vs AEK Larnaca preview and prediction
The match
AEK Larnaca travel to Alphamega Stadium in the 1. Division on Friday 22 May (15:30 WAT) to face Aris. Aris are 7th with 15 points from 9 games (in the top half), while AEK Larnaca sit 1st on 20 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Aris's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Apoel Nicosia 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
AEK Larnaca's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Apollon Limassol 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Aris and 1.4 for AEK Larnaca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aris 35%, draw 21%, AEK Larnaca 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.65.
Value angle: AEK Larnaca to win at 2.45 – 44% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Aris 1–1 AEK Larnaca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aris35%fair 2.85 · @2.60
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.30
AEK Larnaca44%fair 2.28 · @2.45
2.67Expected goals
1.24Aris xG
1.43AEK Larnaca xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–09%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Aris 1.2 – 1.4 AEK Larnaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AEK Larnaca to win✓
44%
2.28
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AEK Larnaca / FT AEK Larnaca✓
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.10
–
Form
Aris – last 6
WDLLWD
6 May
vs Apoel Nicosia
1–0
W
14 Apr
vs Pafos
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Apoel Nicosia
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Apoel Nicosia
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Enosis
4–0
W
1 Mar
vs Pafos
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AEK Larnaca – last 6
WLDDWD
6 May
vs Apollon Limassol
1–0
W
14 Apr
vs Omonia Nicosia
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Apollon Limassol
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs Crystal Palace
1–1
D
16 Mar
@ Ethnikos Achna
2–0
W
12 Mar
@ Crystal Palace
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aris and AEK Larnaca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
On our numbers Aris have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 21% and AEK Larnaca 44%.
How many goals will there be in Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
Our predicted score is Aris 1–1 AEK Larnaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Aris vs AEK Larnaca?
Aris vs AEK Larnaca (1. Division) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Alphamega Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
