Value bet: Tigres UANL to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTigres UANL to win ✗39% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 10.91
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL preview and prediction
The match
Tigres UANL travel to Estadio Akron in the Liga MX on Sunday 10 May (02:07 WAT) to face Guadalajara Chivas. Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd with 30 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Tigres UANL sit 15th on 15 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Guadalajara Chivas's last 5: LDDWL Most recently they lost to Tigres UANL 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tigres UANL's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Nashville SC 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tigres UANL arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished Tigres UANL 3–1 Guadalajara Chivas. Across their last 2 meetings Guadalajara Chivas have won 0, Tigres UANL 2, with 0 draws and 4.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Guadalajara Chivas and 1.4 for Tigres UANL. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Tigres UANL to win at 3.10 – 39% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Tigres UANL. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guadalajara Chivas38%fair 2.61 · @2.18
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.50
Tigres UANL39%fair 2.56 · @3.10
2.69Expected goals
1.34Guadalajara Chivas xG
1.35Tigres UANL xG
52%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Guadalajara Chivas 1.3 – 1.4 Tigres UANL expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
On our numbers Guadalajara Chivas have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Tigres UANL 39%.
How many goals will there be in Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
Our predicted score is Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Tigres UANL, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 02:07 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Akron.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
