Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Cruz Azul to win @ 1.88 – our chance 59% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruz Azul to win ✓59% · @1.88
Double chanceCruz Azul or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.44
Atlas vs Cruz Azul preview and prediction
The match
Cruz Azul travel to Estadio Jalisco in the Liga MX on Sunday 3 May (04:15 WAT) to face Atlas. Atlas are 5th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Cruz Azul sit 1st on 32 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Atlas's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Club America 1–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cruz Azul's last 5: WDDDD Most recently they beat Necaxa 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Atlas and 1.7 for Cruz Azul. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atlas 18%, draw 23%, Cruz Azul 59%.
Safer route: Cruz Azul or draw (82%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Cruz Azul to win at 1.88 – 59% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cruz Azul or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Atlas 0–1 Cruz Azul. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlas18%fair 5.49 · @4.30
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.30
Cruz Azul59%fair 1.69 · @1.88
2.55Expected goals
0.83Atlas xG
1.73Cruz Azul xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Atlas 0.8 – 1.7 Cruz Azul expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruz Azul to win✓
59%
1.69
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Cruz Azul or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.77
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruz Azul / FT Cruz Azul✓
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.44
–
Form
Atlas – last 6
WDWDLD
26 Apr
@ Club America
1–0
W
23 Apr
vs Tigres UANL
0–0
D
20 Apr
@ Santos Laguna
1–0
W
12 Apr
vs Monterrey
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Leon
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Club Queretaro
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Cruz Azul – last 6
WDDDDL
27 Apr
vs Necaxa
4–1
W
22 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs Club Tijuana
1–1
D
15 Apr
vs Los Angeles FC
1–1
D
12 Apr
@ Club America
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ Los Angeles FC
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlas and Cruz Azul.
Our pick is Cruz Azul or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
On our numbers Atlas have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cruz Azul 59%.
How many goals will there be in Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
Our predicted score is Atlas 0–1 Cruz Azul, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atlas vs Cruz Azul?
Atlas vs Cruz Azul (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 04:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
