Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Tigres UANL or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Tigres UANL to win @ 1.92 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTigres UANL to win ✓62% · @1.92
Double chanceTigres UANL or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.06
Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas preview and prediction
The match
Tigres UANL host Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX on Sunday 3 May, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Universitario (UANL). Tigres UANL are 15th with 15 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Guadalajara Chivas sit 3rd on 30 points (in the top four). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tigres UANL's last 5: WWDDL Most recently they beat Nashville SC 1–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Guadalajara Chivas's last 5: DDWLD Most recently they drew with Club Tijuana 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 April 2026, finished Tigres UANL 4–1 Guadalajara Chivas.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Tigres UANL and 0.8 for Guadalajara Chivas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Tigres UANL to win at 1.92 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tigres UANL or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tigres UANL 1–0 Guadalajara Chivas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tigres UANL62%fair 1.61 · @1.92
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.40
Guadalajara Chivas16%fair 6.32 · @3.95
2.72Expected goals
1.89Tigres UANL xG
0.84Guadalajara Chivas xG
51%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Tigres UANL 1.9 – 0.8 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Tigres UANL or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Tigres UANL have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Guadalajara Chivas 16%.
How many goals will there be in Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Tigres UANL 1–0 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Universitario (UANL).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
