Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Ural to win @ 1.92 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUral to win ✓56% · @1.92
Double chanceUral or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.27
Ural vs KAMAZ preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Ural take on KAMAZ on Monday 11 May, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Yekaterinburg Arena. Ural are 2nd with 34 points from 17 games (in the top four), while KAMAZ sit 16th on 14 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ural's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Shinnik Yaroslavl 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
KAMAZ's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Spartak Kostroma 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ural arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.6 for Ural and 0.8 for KAMAZ. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ural 56%, draw 24%, KAMAZ 20%.
Safer route: Ural or draw (80%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Ural to win at 1.92 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ural or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ural 1–0 KAMAZ. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ural56%fair 1.78 · @1.92
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.32
KAMAZ20%fair 4.94 · @3.88
2.46Expected goals
1.62Ural xG
0.85KAMAZ xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Ural 1.6 – 0.8 KAMAZ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ural to win✓
56%
1.78
1.92 ▲
Double chance
Ural or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.29
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.74
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.23
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ural / FT Ural✓
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.27
–
Form
Ural – last 6
LWWWDW
4 May
vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
0–1
L
26 Apr
@ Chelyabinsk
2–1
W
22 Apr
vs Torpedo Moskva
2–0
W
18 Apr
@ FK Sokol Saratov
3–0
W
12 Apr
vs FC UFA
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Chayka
5–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
KAMAZ – last 6
WWLDLD
1 May
vs Spartak Kostroma
2–0
W
22 Apr
@ FC UFA
1–0
W
17 Apr
@ Torpedo Moskva
0–2
L
10 Apr
vs FK Neftekhimik
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Enisey
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Arsenal Tula
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ural and KAMAZ.
Our pick is Ural or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ural vs KAMAZ?
On our numbers Ural have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and KAMAZ 20%.
How many goals will there be in Ural vs KAMAZ?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ural vs KAMAZ?
Our predicted score is Ural 1–0 KAMAZ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ural vs KAMAZ?
Ural vs KAMAZ (First League) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Yekaterinburg Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
