Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Rodina Moskva take on Chelyabinsk on Friday 8 May, kicking off at 18:30 (WAT) at Arena Khimki.
Form guide
Rodina Moskva's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Rotor Volgograd 0–2 away. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
Chelyabinsk's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat FK Neftekhimik 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Rodina Moskva arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Rodina Moskva and 0.7 for Chelyabinsk. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Rodina Moskva 65%, draw 24%, Chelyabinsk 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.06.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.27. Predicted score: Rodina Moskva 1–0 Chelyabinsk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rodina Moskva65%fair 1.53 · @1.41
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @4.30
Chelyabinsk11%fair 9.07 · @7.30
2.54Expected goals
1.88Rodina Moskva xG
0.66Chelyabinsk xG
51%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Rodina Moskva 1.9 – 0.7 Chelyabinsk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rodina Moskva to win✓
65%
1.53
1.41
Double chance
Rodina Moskva or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.06
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.24
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.86
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.27
Half-time result
Rodina Moskva ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rodina Moskva / FT Rodina Moskva✓
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.74
–
Form
Rodina Moskva – last 6
LWWWWD
22 Apr
@ Rotor Volgograd
0–2
L
13 Apr
@ Fakel
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ FK Sokol Saratov
3–1
W
29 Mar
vs Ural
3–1
W
23 Mar
vs Chayka
5–2
W
14 Mar
@ Ska-khabarovsk
2–2
D
2.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Chelyabinsk – last 6
WLDLDL
2 May
vs FK Neftekhimik
2–0
W
26 Apr
vs Ural
1–2
L
22 Apr
@ Arsenal Tula
0–0
D
17 Apr
@ Enisey
0–3
L
3 Apr
vs Chernomorets
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Chayka
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rodina Moskva and Chelyabinsk.
What is the prediction for Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk?
On our numbers Rodina Moskva have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Chelyabinsk 11%.
How many goals will there be in Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk?
Our predicted score is Rodina Moskva 1–0 Chelyabinsk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk?
Rodina Moskva vs Chelyabinsk (First League) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Khimki.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Chayka0
Chernomorets2
Fakel0