Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Cimarrones to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCimarrones to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceCimarrones or draw ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.91
Cimarrones vs Celaya preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Premier Serie A sees Cimarrones take on Celaya on Sunday 26 April, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Cimarrones's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Celaya 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Celaya's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Cimarrones 2–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Cimarrones arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 April 2026, finished Celaya 2–1 Cimarrones.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.8 for Cimarrones and 1.0 for Celaya. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Cimarrones to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cimarrones or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Cimarrones 1–0 Celaya. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cimarrones56%fair 1.78 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.45
Celaya20%fair 4.92 · @3.30
2.77Expected goals
1.79Cimarrones xG
0.98Celaya xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: Cimarrones 1.8 – 1.0 Celaya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Cimarrones or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cimarrones vs Celaya?
On our numbers Cimarrones have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Celaya 20%.
How many goals will there be in Cimarrones vs Celaya?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cimarrones vs Celaya?
Our predicted score is Cimarrones 1–0 Celaya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Cimarrones vs Celaya?
Cimarrones vs Celaya (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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